Angewandtes short- und medium-term Forecasting in Industrieunternehmen

Translated title of the contribution: Applied short- and medium-term forecasting in industrial companies

Josef Friedrich Pichler

Research output: ThesisDoctoral Thesis

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Abstract

Applied short- and medium-term forecasting includes the preparation of forecasts regarding potential sales quantities and their qualities with forecast horizons up to one year, the balancing of these forecasts with constraints in supply chains and the forecast-based determination of short- and mid-term strategies concerning supply chain management as well as sales planning. Open research questions exist mainly in conjunction with company-wide forecast processes. This thesis is meant to bridge parts of this gap. Concerning an efficient forecast-specific communication between procurement, production planning and control as well as sales, instructions were worked out, how to derive ideally formed communication-contents regarding individually existing, complex and typically industrial surrounding conditions. Concerning an early detection of forecast errors caused by gameplaying (the wilful propagation of wrong forecast figures to attend local interests), a mathematical criterion was developed, that is based on an analysis of orders on hand in the context with a novel differentiation of historical demand data. In terms of the determination of short- and mid-term planning strategies, it was investigated, how those strategies can be selected from the pool of all possible strategies, which lead to the maximally possible company profit. Based on this, recommendations were derived, which also include applications of linear programming.
Translated title of the contributionApplied short- and medium-term forecasting in industrial companies
Original languageGerman
QualificationDr.mont.
Supervisors/Advisors
  • Engelhardt-Nowitzki, Corinna, Assessor A (internal)
  • Böhm, Bernhard, Assessor B (external), External person
Publication statusPublished - 2007

Bibliographical note

embargoed until null

Keywords

  • forecasting
  • applied forecast process communication
  • forecast specific supply chain management
  • margin and forecast oriented sales planning
  • forecast- and constraint-based gameplaying demand patterns supply chain types forecast levels
  • aggregated distributions of delivery times

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