Aiding the decision process by automated reservoir simulation and economic modelling

Clemens Rainer

Research output: ThesisMaster's Thesis


For oil and gas field developments the economic success depends on a number of parameters, such as geologic uncertainties, operational risks and price forecasts. To be able to make a sound and quality decision it is necessary to analyse various alternatives and be able to compare the results with each other. Every undertaking during the life cycle bears the risk of failure and uncertain results, connected correlated likelihoods and a range of uncertain variables. For a synthetic reservoir all possible results are simulated and evaluated according to their probability to happen and the economic impact over field life. A holistic approach is presented here to evaluate the possible outcomes of a well intervention by combining reservoir simulation with a fully stochastic economic model. As the number of the varying parameters increases, so do the possible results and become a limiting factor for performing complete evaluations. For this reason, a program is developed to automate setting up numerical simulation models and export the production forecast in a standardised format. The subsequent economic evaluation assesses the likelihood and economic variables of every forecast with the help of a fully probabilistic model. The result is a risk weighted expected monetary value, which allows picking the optimal time for an intervention depending on the assumed probability of success. The objectives are met by a computerised method to automate the workflow and remove the bottleneck of manual setup and analysis of every forecast. This enables rapid modification of models and investigating variations deemed too time consuming or typically simplified by approximations.
Translated title of the contributionUnterstützung des Entscheidungsprozesses mittels automatischer Lagerstättensimulation und ökonomischer Modellierung
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • Montanuniversität
  • Orodu, Oyinkepreye David, Supervisor (external), External person
  • Ott, Holger, Supervisor (internal)
Award date12 Apr 2019
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Bibliographical note

embargoed until null


  • petroleum economics
  • reservoir engineering
  • numerical simulation
  • automation
  • decision analysis
  • probability of success
  • stochastic
  • Monte Carlo
  • conditional probability

Cite this